The DRAM Supply Crisis Explained
If you have been hoping that RAM and SSD prices will drop back to the good old days, this latest update on the global memory market is not what you want to hear. Two companies, Samsung and SK Hynix, control about 70 percent of the DRAM market. Both are signaling that they either will not or cannot expand production fast enough to meet exploding demand. That has analysts warning that the current memory supply crunch could last through 2028 and possibly beyond.
Samsung has made its strategy very clear. On a recent investor call the company said it will prioritize long term profitability instead of rapidly expanding factories. In simple terms, Samsung wants to avoid flooding the market with too much memory if demand ever cools off. To do that, it is carefully managing how much it spends on new capacity and trying to keep supply and pricing balanced in its favor.
Right now Samsung says it can only cover around 70 percent of the DRAM orders it receives. That shortfall is a big reason why prices have been rising and why they are unlikely to normalize anytime soon.
SK Hynix is taking a slightly more aggressive stance but with similar limits. The company plans to invest about 30 percent of its sales revenue into new facilities in 2026 and to speed up the move to newer 1c DRAM technology. Even so, SK Hynix warns that it will still be difficult to fully solve the shortage.
For PC gamers and builders this all translates to one thing. Memory is going to stay expensive for longer than many expected.
Why Demand Is Outpacing Supply
It is not that memory makers are sitting still. Production is increasing. The problem is that demand for DRAM is rising even faster, driven heavily by artificial intelligence, data centers, and high end devices. Trendforce expects DRAM supply to grow by about 23 percent in 2026. In the same year demand is predicted to jump by around 35 percent.
That gap means the market remains tight. When demand grows faster than supply, prices tend to climb and stay high.
There are also big new factory projects on the horizon, but they will not help gamers any time soon. Micron, a major US memory manufacturer, plans to invest nearly 10 billion dollars in a new DRAM facility in Japan. However that plant is not expected to start shipping chips until the second half of 2028. Analysts at Tech Insight argue that by the time those chips hit the market the current supply crisis will still be ongoing.
Another important detail is how Samsung is handling its customers. Some buyers want to lock in large, multi year contracts to secure supply and maybe soften future price spikes. Samsung is reportedly pushing back against this. The company does not want to be tied to fixed volumes and prices in a market where prices are rising quickly. That gives Samsung more freedom to benefit from higher pricing instead of being locked into cheaper long term deals.
When you put all of this together you get a clear picture. The big memory makers are increasing capacity, but very cautiously. They are more afraid of a future oversupply crash than they are of today’s tight market. They have seen what happens when companies ramp too fast and then demand collapses. Prices crash, inventories pile up, and profits evaporate.
What This Means For PC Gamers And Builders
So what is the bottom line if you are planning a new gaming rig or upgrading your current setup
- Do not expect RAM prices to drop significantly in the near future. With supply constrained and demand surging, prices are likely to remain elevated through the next several years.
- DDR5 in particular may stay at a premium. As more platforms move to DDR5 and AI servers gobble up high performance memory, competition for those chips will stay intense.
- Timing your upgrades will matter. If you see temporary discounts due to sales or short term inventory spikes, those might be good opportunities to buy rather than waiting for a long term price crash that may not come soon.
- Capacity planning is important. If you are building a new PC, it may be smarter to buy the amount of RAM you will realistically need for the next few years now instead of counting on cheaper upgrades later.
The wild card is the AI boom. Much of the current demand for DRAM is coming from AI training and inference hardware in massive data centers. The big memory makers appear to be betting that this boom will not last forever, which is why they are so cautious about huge expansions.
The irony is that for regular users and gamers, the fastest way memory prices could normalize is if the AI bubble bursts and the broader tech market slows sharply. That would free up supply, crush demand, and drive prices down. Of course that scenario would come with its own serious economic problems. It is very much a be careful what you wish for situation.
For now, the message from the Dramurai as some call Samsung, SK Hynix and their peers is simple. Memory is scarce, demand is hot, and they are in no rush to change that balance. If you are planning a PC build between now and the end of the decade, it is wise to factor in a world where RAM stays more expensive than you might like.
Original article and image: https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/memory/memory-crisis-and-sky-high-dram-prices-could-run-past-2028-as-samsung-and-sk-hynix-opt-to-minimize-the-risk-of-oversupply/
